Climate Change as a National Security Challenge: Emerging Threats and Strategic Responses for Pakistan

Abstract

Climate change has become a multi-faceted national security issue in Pakistan. The country is a small emitter of GHGs, but is highly vulnerable to floods, heatwaves, droughts, glacial hazards, water stress/scarce supply, sea-level rise, ecosystem degradation, and climate-related livelihood disruption. The impacts of these pressures on the human, economic, food, water, energy, infrastructure and political security of Pakistan are explored in this paper. It underlines the need to consider climate change not as a direct trigger for conflict, but as a threat multiplier that exacerbates existing vulnerabilities due to climate shocks, which are compounded by poverty, weak infrastructure networks, and high rates of urbanization, resource pressures, governance deficits and fiscal constraints. The 2022 floods are a stark example, causing damages and economic losses of more than US$30 billion, and impacting some 33 million people. The paper uses a qualitative secondary research method, document analysis and a climate-security framework to pinpoint new risks and evaluate strategic responses. It suggests integrating climate risk into national security planning, enhancing water and disaster governance, climate-proofing critical infrastructure, climate early-warning systems, climate smart agriculture, protecting mountain ecosystems, mobilizing climate finance and expanding regional cooperation. The core theme is to shift the country's security policy from military readiness to overall resilience.