BUFFER OR BULWARK? REASSESSING RUSSIA’S CENTRAL ASIAN SECURITY CALCULUS AFTER THE AFGHAN POWER VACUUM

Abstract

In August 2021, the withdrawal of U.S. and NATO military forces from Afghanistan affected the regional security dilemma. The collapse of the Afghan Republic and the Taliban’s swift occupation of the land by the Taliban resulted in new dynamics, especially for Russia. This article posits that Russia’s Central Asian security posture in the aftermath of the Afghan power vacuum may best be understood as buffer logic- an attempt to provide security to its eastern flank- or bulwark ambition- an attempt to wield regional leadership. The article claims that security is the main driving force behind Russia’s attitude towards Afghanistan. Moscow sees Afghanistan as a potential source of such transnational threats as narcotics trafficking, extremism, and terrorism. There have been concerns about the potential for the spread of instability to Central Asian republics, which have trading interests and established political and military relationships with Russia, due to the presence of the Islamic State Khorasan Province (ISKP). But Russia has tried to adopt a pragmatic approach to engagement with the Taliban government by maintaining diplomatic ties on security issues common to both and extending its security sector and institutional footprint through the Collective Security Treaty Organization (CSTO) and the Shanghai Cooperation Organization (SCO). In conclusion, the article identifies a combination of buffer and bulwark thinking in Russia’s Central Asian Strategy's to maintain regional stability and solidify its strategic presence after its withdrawal.