Temporary rural economies at a large religious gathering: crowd estimation and short-term market activity in Bajaur, Pakistan

Abstract

Large religious gatherings are commonly discussed in terms of faith, social participation and crowd management, while their short-term contribution to rural economic activity receives less systematic attention. This study examines the Tablighi Ijtema held in Khar, District Bajaur, Khyber Pakhtunkhwa, Pakistan, on 28–29 September 2026. According to local accounts, the gathering took place after approximately three decades and concluded peacefully in a district where insecurity has affected everyday life and economic confidence. Field-based crowd estimation, records from 20 vendors operating in a temporary marketplace, and a separate participant-expenditure record were used to examine attendance and economic activity concentrated over a short period. Pacing-based measurements gave an approximate rectangular footprint of 790,920 square feet (73,479 m²), based on an assumed average step length of 2.6 feet. An adapted Jacobs-style area-density assessment, a row-spacing calculation and field observations supported a working peak-attendance estimate of 75,000–80,000 people. This is an estimate rather than a verified headcount or a full grid-based application of Jacobs' method. The temporary marketplace was reported to contain more than 100 stalls or small shops. The 20-vendor dataset recorded aggregate sales of PKR 765,500 and reported or estimated profit of PKR 157,345. Separately, a group-based expenditure benchmark of PKR 1,041 per participant for two meals and shared logistics was applied to an assumed 55,000–65,000 participants covered by these arrangements. This produced an illustrative expenditure scenario of PKR 57.255–67.665 million, equivalent to approximately PKR 5.73–6.77 crore. These indicators have different scopes and are not combined into a single economic-impact estimate. The study documents temporary market activity around a large rural religious gathering and highlights practical implications for local livelihoods, small-enterprise participation, event management and future rural-development research.